Sunrise, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

042
FXUS62 KMFL 071743
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - Dangerous rip currents are forecast to continue at all east
   coast beaches through this evening.

 - Heat indices expected to rise into the lower 100s across
   southwestern Florida today.

 - Increasing confidence in a return to more widespread shower and
   thunderstorm activity early to middle of this week as deep
   moisture returns to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The upper-level ridging pattern across the Southeastern U.S. will be
the primary influence on South Florida weather for today and into
the early part of this week. A stout mid-level trough will attempt
to break down the ridge for the latter half of Monday and in the
days to follow, but this is not expected to be accomplished by the
end of this short term period. Under this ridge pattern, the low
level wind pattern will be out of a predominantly easterly
direction, which will result in an anchored Gulf breeze which will
be the primary lifting mechanism in this regime. As a result, the
highest PoPs will be located in this Gulf coast region at 50-60%
today and tomorrow as some extra moisture works back into the area
despite the ridge pattern being maintained. This deeper moisture
could allow for a few additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop regardless of the local high pressure pattern since the Gulf
breeze will provide enough lift for some shallower showers and
perhaps isolated storms. There are not any major impacts expected
from any convective activity today or on Monday.

High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s for most
areas today and tomorrow, but some interior locations may reach the
mid 90s. Maximum heat index values will rise to the upper 90s in
Southeast Florida and 100-105F in Southwest Florida, but will remain
below advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A mid-level trough in the central U.S. will cause the mid-level
ridge over the eastern and southeastern U.S. to break down by mid-
week, which in response will allow some positive vorticity
impulses to advect into South Florida for the mid-week period.
Additionally, much deeper moisture will return and support the
development of increased showers and thunderstorms for the mid-
week period. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and
Mid-Atlantic region will attempt to suppress vertical ascent, but
given these positive vorticity impulses and deep moisture (PWATs
1.8-2+ inches) this will be enough to produce scattered to
numerous rain showers and thunderstorms across South Florida
during this time frame and likely into late week as well.

By the end of the week and into next weekend, model guidance begins
to diverge, which creates much uncertainty in the forecast heading
towards the end of the period. The GFS ensemble suite highlights the
potential for an upper level low to form in the Caribbean and
strengthen as it propagates northwards across the Florida
Peninsula. Conversely, the ECMWF suite has a low forming over the
Yucatan Peninsula likely associated with the Central American
Gyre (CAG) and gets blocked from advecting northwards. Regardless
of the exact solution for this time frame, the one thing that is
clear is that abundant moisture will be in place and enough energy
exists from daily mesoscale processes and other synoptic
influences that can spark widespread showers and thunderstorms
each day. As a result, PoPs rise to 70-80% or higher for Thursday
onwards into next weekend.

High temperatures each day in the long term period are expected in
the upper 80s to low 90s, with temperatures likely not exceeding the
upper 80s for several days towards the end of the period as
widespread rain and cloud cover diminishes how hot it can get.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail for the period. Easterly winds
continue around 10-12 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 20-22 kts.
A westerly wind shift is expected at KAPF after 20Z, with some
thunderstorm activity possible near the terminal in the afternoon as
the Gulf breeze pushes inland. Wind speeds are expected to decrease
overnight at all terminals and then enhance once again during the
early afternoon hours tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A moderate easterly wind flow will prevail across the local waters
today and through early this week, with winds becoming westerly to
west-southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the
Gulf breeze develops. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more
limited again today, but this coverage is expected to increase as
the week progresses. Seas are expected at 2-3 feet or less today
across the Atlantic waters and 1-2 feet or less for the Gulf
waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A high risk for rip currents continues across the Atlantic beaches
through this afternoon. This risk will begin to decrease this
evening and into early this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  77  89 /  10  20  10  30
West Kendall     75  91  75  90 /  10  20  10  40
Opa-Locka        77  91  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
Homestead        77  90  77  89 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  78  87 /   0  10  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  77  88  78  87 /   0  10  10  30
Pembroke Pines   78  92  79  91 /   0  10  10  30
West Palm Beach  78  89  78  88 /  10  10  10  20
Boca Raton       79  89  79  87 /   0  10  10  30
Naples           75  92  77  91 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...DPB